Legislators in the 21st century will be judged by their success in addressing global warming and reducing poverty.

Based on current trends, energy-related CO2 emissions would more than double by 2050 and put the world on a catastrophic trajectory that could lead to temperatures more than 5°C warmer than pre-industrial times. Concerted global action is urgently needed to limit global warming to around 2°C. An energy revolution is required to reduce global carbon emissions by half in 2050 relative to 1990 levels, and to decarbonize the world economy by the end of the century.

On the development front, the number of people living in extreme poverty – already more than twice the population of Europe - is increasing. None of the 7 millennium development goals are expected to be met and the 1.4 billion extreme poor (those living on under $1.25 a day ppp adjusted) are increasingly disconnected from global society. Even this number disguises the true nature of poverty – it disguises the infant mortality, the malnutrition, the lack of access to health care and education, and the political and social exclusion. Demographics will dramatically increase our challenge. Almost all of the 3 billion increase in global population projected by 2050 will occur in developing countries – two thirds of it in regions currently experiencing low economic growth.

Climate change and poverty are deeply intertwined. Modelers suggest that developing countries will bear 75% to 80% of the costs of the damage from climate change. Climate change will be felt most acutely in Africa, where 95% of agriculture is rainfall dependent, and in low lying areas like Bangladesh and small island states.

Just as the financial crisis originated in the developed world and contaminated developing countries, so too has the concentration of greenhouse gas. Today’s greenhouse gas problems are largely generated by developed countries with energy use per capita on average 5 times that of developing countries. Negotiations to resolve the issues are immensely challenging – particularly because Greenhouse gases come from multiple sources, and involve serious equity and moral considerations, and difficult issues of sequencing and competitiveness.